The COVID Summer Wave has Peaked
- Hubbub World
- Aug 12, 2024
- 3 min read
Updated: Aug 13, 2024
The increase in COVID prevalence over the past 3 months is coming to an end
After three months of rising COVID-19 cases, driven by new SARS-CoV-2 variants in the KP and LB lineages and lack of any significant attempts at mitigation among the public, the COVID summer wave is finally slowing. From a low of under 2 million cases in early May, prevalence rose to a peak of 5.4 million now. However, the wave has crested, and we can expect a gradual decline in cases over the next month.
The COVID summer wave
Over this weekend, we ran polls on social media that gives insights into how extensive the summer wave has been.
❓ How many of your friends and family have had COVID this summer?
Nearly half of those responding to our poll knew 1 to 4 people that had had COVID over the summer, while a quarter reported even more.
Given actual prevalence is much higher than the number confirmed with tests or disclosed, the community estimate is in sync with the cumulative number that have been infectious over the past 3 months as reported by hubbub's daily National Prevalence.
❓ How many of your friends and family have COVID right now?
As we hit the peak of the wave, hubbub's National Prevalence estimate for August 13, 2024, is 5.4 million which matches the estimate from the community at around 2%.
Interestingly, community perceptions mirrored our computed estimates.
🏥 The healthcare perspective
The CDC has reported a peak in emergency visits for COVID over the past week. Bear in mind though that the relationship between prevalence and Emergency visits is complex due to the interplay between demographics, disease pathology and environmental factors. Still, it is well correlated at a national level due to the "law of large numbers".
❓ How many of your friends and family have been to a hospital/ER for COVID this summer?
Less than 15% the responders to our poll knew of someone that had sought healthcare for COVID this summer. This mirrors the CDC statistic that, at its peak, 2.4% of ED visits were positive for COVID given the standard rate of use of Emergency care facilities.
This also is consistent with the recently released 2023 Provisional Mortality data from CDC which shows that COVID was the 10th highest cause of death and trending towards dropping off the Top 10 list in 2024.
Latest Provisional Mortality data shows COVID-19 dropping to 10th spot
❓ Among your friends and family, worry about COVID is Increasing, Decreasing or About the same?
As COVID becomes a part of everyday life, many people no longer see it as a significant threat, even during surges.
Although concern rises with increased cases, it has not led to stronger public health measures or policy changes.
Meanwhile, COVID continues to have long term consequences not yet fully understood and costs at least a day of sick day on the average. Costs that add up!
🔮 What's ahead?
The next month will see a slow decline in cases due to the reopening of schools and the new transmission chains that enables. Follow hubbub on Threads or X for weekly updates for your city or state. Or signup for bub to check up on real time COVID status in your location.
We also have some exciting new announcements coming up. Stay tuned! Stay safe 🛡️ The downhill side of the peak is not as steep as the uphill and leads to a high valley!