Respiratory Illnesses have peaked for this winter
- Hubbub World
- Jan 20
- 2 min read
COVID-19, Flu and RSV are starting to trend down
After 2 months of rising COVID-19 cases, driven by new SARS-CoV-2 variants in the KP, XEC and LP lineages, the COVID prevalence is now starting to decrease nationally. From a low of under 4 million cases in late November, prevalence rose to a peak of 5.6 million now. However, the wave has crested, and we can expect a gradual decline in cases over the next month. It is important to note though that this winter, while the peak prevalence was on par with the peak prevalence in summer in many places the cumulative number of people impacted was significantly lower due to the lack of radically different new variants and the higher prevailing immunity from the unusually high summer wave, which made the duration of the winter wave shorter.
Flu prevalence peaked at 1 million on December 31st. However, it is important to note that almost the entire Flu season has been due to Influenza A with very low prevalence of Influenza B. If Influenza B gets traction, it could extend the flu season from winding down by March.
RSV prevalence also peaked at about 1.6 million in the first week of January. And set to decline over the next 3 months.
🏥 Healthcare disease burden
CDC has published preliminary estimates of the impact of respiratory illnesses till date on the healthcare infrastructure. However, it is important to note that different viruses cause illnesses of different levels of acuity from asymptomatic to symptomatic to requiring emergency/office visits to hospitalizations or even fatality.
COVID continues to have a significantly lower acute disease burden compared to other respiratory illnesses given the peak prevalence is at 5.6 million while less than 8 million are cumulatively considered to have had an illness with less than 2 million requiring an outpatient visit and under 210,000 hospitalizations.
Flu causes greater acute disease burden given the peak prevalence was at 1 million which resulted in up to 22 million cumulative illnesses and up to 10 million emergency /office visits and up to 340,000 hospitalizations.
RSV acute disease burden is estimated at up to 3.1 million emergency/office visits and up to 160,000 hospitalizations, while the peak prevalence was up to 1.6 million.
🔮 What's ahead?
As the typical winter respiratory illness wave subsides, we are anticipating some emerging threats such as H5N1 Bird Flu becoming a serious risk in the year ahead.
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