December 4, 2023
'Tis the season. For Respiratory illnesses
We are now in the thick of the winter surge in Respiratory illnesses including COVID, Flu, RSV and the new bacterial pneumonia all of which share similar symptoms and transmission mechanisms.
Here is an update on the 'white lung syndrome" from Dr. Celine Gounder:
The Exposure Risk map below shows that 95% of the population is facing elevated levels of exposure risk to one or more of these airborne pathogens. Which means, it is time to get your shots and wear a quality mask to protect yourself.
Following the Thanksgiving weekend, the State level prevalence chart illustrates the onset of the Winter wave across the entire country as the transmission from the Thanksgiving socialization is incorporated into the community prevalence and temperatures cool down compounding the transmission within immediate social networks.
The third week sees the Winter COVID wave take the Northeast, Midwest, South and California to moderate prevalence.
〜 This past week saw the Pacific Northwest and the Deep South register a minor decline in prevalence.
🔺 Meanwhile, states along the Rockies and the Northeast saw a resurgence along with Midwest and other South which continued their increase in prevalence.
🦠 JN.1 is the most significant current variant driving prevalence in all states, especially in the largest metro regions. As millions are infected with this new variant this month, JN.1 and its descendants will become the defining family of variants for early 2024. Already, a JN.1 recombinant XDD is starting to spread though it is in its early stages.
JN.1 is spawning the next generation of variants
This week, CDC will start tracking JN.1 as a significant variant and the reported percentages will match the hotspots in the prevalence map below.
When the 2023 COVID vaccine were approved in the summer, we had hoped for a 25% adoption of the vaccines. But the latest stats from CDC seem to indicate a tapering off of the adoption around 2/3 of that at 17%.
With the several months of high levels of immunity offered by the vaccines, if you have not received the vaccine yet, there is still time to get it before prevalence peaks this month.
Nationally, Flu prevalence continues on track to being a normal flu season with incidence exceeding 1% this past week.
Flu prevalence continues to trend up with a surprising slow down in parts of the South
💉 If you have not received the flu shot already, now would be the time.
RSV prevalence is still very high in metro areas but starting to peak in almost all states.
RSV prevalence is very high but peaking
📣 Introducing bub+
This week we are launching the bub+ subscription with a suite of advanced features:
30-day Forecast for health risks starting with the respiratory illnesses that matter this winter – COVID-19, Influenza and RSV
30-day Guidance for precautions in common scenarios for respiratory illnesses
Community Risk for early warning on illnesses circulating in your community
Risk Alerts via daily email for important health concerns
More features including an AI bot – coming soon
🚀 The Winter COVID-19 wave is starting to peak in some of the early hotspots. And picking speed in all states.
💉 Get the COVID-19 and Flu vaccines if you have not yet.
📊 Get bub+ forecasts and alerts to know how to keep safe, when and where: https://bub.hubbubworld.com