November 20, 2023
🔺 The first week of the Winter 2023 COVID-19 wave saw the New York City area including commuter towns in New Jersey and Connecticut establish a steady increase in prevalence at up to 20% week over week.
〜 When looking at state level trends, most states continue to flip-flop indicating that parts of a state may be trending up while other parts are trending down. Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota and South Dakota are states that have had elevated prevalence for a while and are now cooling down though not secularly.
State level prevalence best illustrates where the wave is highest and how it is spreading cross the states. New York and New Jersey are moderately high with all states east of Mississippi and the West at low levels.
The first week sees NYC leading the Winter COVID wave
🦠 The Winter wave is being primarily driven by the J family of variants which are derived from BA.2.86. which are replacing the EG.5 derived variants which were behind the fall wave.
Of the J family variants, JN.* variants are accelerating the most with JN.1 or its derivative likely to emerge as the dominant variant by the end of the wave.
COVID prevalence is accelerating in states with significant prevalence of the J family of variants
🚀 Numerous states such as California, Colorado, Louisiana, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Texas and Utah have seen localized surges as these variants got a foothold. We should see these spikes become more frequent and more widespread in the coming weeks turning much of the prevalence map below black.
Do take all precautions – staying home when sick, ventilation, masking, vaccines – to protect yourself and your community.
15% of adults have received the COVID vaccine till a week back which is a promising path to getting to at least 25% coverage for this season.
With the several months of high levels of immunity offered by the vaccines, if you have not received the vaccine yet, now is the time to get it before prevalence ramps up in December.
Flu prevalence is trending up in almost all states with Florida and Louisiana mapping up the fastest.
Nationally, Flu prevalence is trending up towards a January peak with prevalence typical of an average Flu season
💉 If you have not received the flu shot already, now would be the time.
RSV prevalence is still very high in most metros except the Midwest. Following a slowdown in the Southeast last week, Florida and California may be the next to see decreases in RSV prevalence.
RSV prevalence is peaking in Florida & California
The good news: No Tripledemic this winter
Introducing Community Risk
This winter forget the guess game about your health risks in your community – in your family, work or school.
With Community Risk, My Bub automatically monitors and alerts you to health risks that matter in your community.
Checkout the Community Risk feature in My Bub – setup your work or school location. Add your family members and invite in your coworkers and classmates.
📈 The Winter COVID-19 wave is off to a start in NYC and many major metros.
💉 Get the COVID-19 and Flu vaccines if you have not yet.
👍 No tripledemic this winter.
📊 Let My Bub monitor forecasts and alert you to your Community Risk: https://bub.hubbubworld.com